Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
